 |
home sitemapcontactNZForexUKForexTranzfers |
|
 Add to your favorites |
||
|
||
Weekly Market Watch - Monday, May 12, 2008
Subscribe to our weekly "Market Watch" newsletter. Last Week RecapThe Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar finished the week softer against the greenback after US trade data showed the deficit narrowing by more than expected boosting prospects the first quarter GDP figures may be revised up. Also weighing on the Aussie was the RBA’s monetary policy statement which revealed the RBA is still firmly on hold, the Aussie fell by half a cent on the back of this. However, earlier in the week the Aussie touched 95 cents after Australia’s trade deficit narrowed in March as iron ore, coal and wheat exports increased and oil hit record highs at US 126 a barrel. Across the Tasman, unemployment fell by the most in 19 years increasing the jobless rate to 3.6 percent pushing the NZD a cent lower to 0.7730 on expectations the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut key interest rates sooner than expected. This pushed the NZD to 3 month lows against the USD and 6 month lows against the AUD. Meanwhile, in Europe euro-zone retail sales fell well below market forecast and German factory orders also disappointed taking the Euro to six week lows against the U.S dollar, the AUD/EUR cross-rate benefited from this pushing it a high of 0.6149. A choppy week for the Canadian dollar falling to parity mid-week but gaining lost ground after unemployment in Canada showed a bigger than expected gain in April pushing it back above 1.01. It was a short week for the Sterling with May Day holiday on Monday but once the traders returned to their desks the sterling fell against most majors. A UK report showed a slowdown in the service sector which accounts for 75 percent of the UK’s economy, the GBP/AUD cross-rate fell to a low near 2.0600. In other news central banks met to announce their interest rate decisions, the RBA left rates on hold at 7.25 percent along with the BoE at 5 percent and the ECB at 4 percent.The A$ closed last week at 0.9430 having started the week at 0.9358. The NZ$ closed last week at 0.7687 having started the week at 0.7815. The Euro closed last week at 1.5481 having started the week at 1.5434. The GBP closed last week at 1.9520 having started the week at 1.9726. US$/JPY closed last week at 102.95 having started the week at 105.19. The Week AheadUSD: The USD finished last week on a soft note against the Yen and Euro but firmed in trade with the Pound. This week sees some considerable data out of the US which should again help move the USD, with the general feeling amongst traders of this being a positive move. On Monday sees the release the Budget Statement, Tuesday sees the release of Advance Retail Sales, Wednesday the all important CPI number for April and Friday US Housing Starts and Building Permits.AUD: The AUD has held its ground since Friday’s close despite seeing it initially drop on the release of the RBA’s quarterly monetary statement. Amongst the big losers against the AUD was the NZD, shedding almost a cent to see it open in Sydney this morning above the 1.2250 mark. This week sees a lot of data locally, starting off with Housing finance on Monday, the Federal Budget tomorrow night, and Consumer Confidence for May on Wednesday. Resistance for the AUD at this stage is around the 0.9460 mark, with further ceilings at 0.9520 and 0.9580. To view live charts follow these links: AUD/USD AUD/EUR AUD/GBP AUD/JPY AUD/NZDNZD: The NZD has lost considerable ground against a basket of currencies and sees it open in Sydney well and truly on the back foot. Against the greenback the NZD slipped below the 0.77 mark for the first time since January 2008. With the only significant data out of New Zealand being the Retail Sales number for March slated for release on Thursday, we expect the NZD to again take direction for offshore events and be prone to further downside. To view live charts follow these links: NZD/USDGBP: The Sterling is feeling the effects of a surging USD and opens this morning with 1.95 firmly in its sights. The Sterling was sold off fairly aggressively late last week with a short term range for the GBP/USD being 1.92 -1.95. On the topside, the 1.9650 mark appears to be the level that the Sterling cannot break through and hold onto, with further resistance at 1.9730 and 1.9840 respectively. The first 3 days of this week sees the release of some reasonably significant data which includes the Trade Balance for March due for release Monday, CPI for April on Tuesday and the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report released on Wednesday. To view live charts follow these links: GBP/USDEUR: The European Central Bank maintained its hawkish bias last Thursday in leaving its interest rates unchanged at 4%. With no change in the interest rates due out of Europe for the remainder of the year, the EUR has come under a fair bit of selling pressure recently. Traders expect this week to be much the same as last week, with the EUR being trapped in the 1.54 to 1.56 range. Any moves north will be dependent on the European CPI and GDP number released on Thursday and the Trade Balance number on Friday. To view live charts follow these links: EUR/USDJPY: Some late selling on Friday saw the USD comes under pressure against the Yen. With the 2 key bits of data out of Japan this week being the Domestic GDP and Trade Balance being released Wednesday and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation on Friday, trade in the run up to these announcements is expected to be fairly thin. The range this week for the USD/JPY is expected to be 101 to 103. To view live charts follow these links: JPY/USDCAD: With no data due out of Canada this week, we expect the CAD to take its direction from offshore events and announcements. Last week, the USD managed to climb to a weekly high of 1.0170 before a late sell off on Friday saw the CAD claw back some of the losses to end the week trading at 1.0050. Again traders expect the USD/CAD to be range bound and being held in a tight 2 cent range of 1.00 – 1.02. To view live charts follow these links: CAD/USD
|
 |
|
| Home Page |  |
Regulation | |
Privacy Policy | |
Complaints | |
Terms of Use | |
Contacts & Support | |
Money Laundering Statement |
 |
IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet
and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular
needs of any particular person. OzForex Pty Ltd makes no recommendations as to the merits of
any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites. Please read our
Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.
 |
Regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484) |
 |
|